As promised, I publish my projection for the Eurovision song contest 2012. The model is based on two factors a) Youtube view counts and b) Friendship coefficients, based on the results of of the competitions in past decade. Enjoy!

You can find the detailed projection here:esc2012projectionfinal.

Last Tuesday PaBaMapa projected the results of the first semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest. We got nine out of ten entries right.

The projection for the second semifinal follows here, these are the ten projected finalists in decreasing probability order:

1. Turkey
2. Serbia
3. Sweden
4. Estonia
5. Norway
6. Croatia
7. Bosnia
8. Slovenia
9. Georgia
10. Macedonia

In fact Lithuania and Macedonia were tied to the point in the 10th place in the projection, We had to apply tie braking procedures to put Macedonia ahead.

This projection relies heavily on Youtube watch-counts, making this semi-final a bit problematic since turkey has 4 times more hits than the next country.

For fun: here are the youtube-hits for each country (in thousands) as they were on monday evening.

We here at Pabamapa.com are proud to present our projection for the 1st semi-final of Eurovision Song Contest 2012. We project that the following 10 countries will make it to the final on the 26th of May, 2012:

1. Cyprus
2. Russia
3. Albania
4. Greece
5. Romania
6. Ireland
7. Iceland
8. Moldova
9. San Marino
10. Denmark

The projections for the second semifinal as well as the final will be provided on the days of those events. But long story short: Russia is looking strong.